Arsenal Lost The Premier League, But They Did Not Bottle It

LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 28: Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta during the Premier League match between ... [+] Arsenal FC and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Emirates Stadium on May 28, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)

Having spent 248 days at the top of the Premier League table in the 2022/23 season - including leading by eight points as late as January 28th - only to lose the title even before the season's final day, it is inevitable that pundits and fans alike will say that Arsenal, to use the common English colloquialism for succumbing to nerves, "bottled it".

On point of fact, it seems hard to refute. After a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest, eventual champions Manchester City reeled off twelve consecutive Premier League victories, including an all-important 4-1 over Arsenal that, you would think, broke their spirit. Indeed, had City not rotated the squad for the season's final two games after the title was confirmed, they surely would have finished on a run of 14 consecutive victories.

The Gunners meanwhile had one win, three draws (including their second draw of the season to lowly Southampton) and the City loss to show for their month of April, before two losses in their 36th and 37th games sealed it. At the crunch point of the season, the supposed "business end", they got worse when City became unbeatable. A surface-level analysis could easily just write it off as a lack of mental fortitude, because team sports is good for that.

To merely ascribe that to "bottle", though, is to overlook critical absences and enforced tactical changes that go some way to explaining the differing results. These things are harder to measure, yet perhaps, instead of it merely being a case of the jitters, Arsenal's thin margins were eroded by ill-timed circumstances.

Most obviously, this regression came in the back line, where Mikel Arteta was forced to try paper over the cracks that emerged with losing Takehiro Tomiyasu, William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko at the critical moment. As had been the case all year, as soon as Arsenal turned to their bench for anyone other than Leandro Trossard - or, once he had been moved into the starting role, Gabriel Martinelli - they fell off markedly, and the injuries to these key defenders forced them to have to.

The full back roles are too important to Artetaball tactically to just plug with filler. Zinchenko's inversion and subsequent overloading of the midfield are fundamental to the relentless ball possession that made Arsenal such a machine going forward, and while he lacked for the pure speed ideal of a full back, Ben White's chemistry with Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard (who, in Artetaball, essentially plays the number 10 spot and right midfield at the same time) was too well-established to just survive without.

As soon as Thomas Partey started playing right back, Arsenal were in trouble. Partey has a small amount of prior experience playing the position, but not in the required way; specifically, going forward, he does not overlap. He can't, really; he is too slow, and too entrenched in the midfield mentality that he has practiced for two decades. Combine that right-sided shortcoming with also not being able to field the customary overloaded midfield without the left back coming inside in the absences of Zinchenko or Tomiyasu - good though he is as an individual, Kieran Tierney is a classic British by-line guy who just does not fit the role - and Arteta's tactics were shot.

Had they lost just Zinchenko, Tomiyasu could fill in. Had they lost just Saliba, White could fill in, and Tomiyasu could fill in for White. The versatile Japanese international has the ball skills and speed to cover across the back line in a way that Partey and Tierney do not. Losing just one of those two, while significant, is not necessarily terminal. But to lose both, as well as their vitally important reserve, was.

Put more simply, if Saliba does not go down, the race is still on until at least the final day. Arsenal ran out of legs, not bottle, and while the "bottle" narrative is easier, already written and not ever to be overwritten, I bristle at it.

Truth be told, even with better health, City still probably win. They are an all-time juggernaut of a team, who are just better and no one of their right mind will deny it. As beautiful as Arsenal's early-season run was, they may have been overachieving - for all the delicious football played and confidence shown, they also had many things break their way in an unsustainable fashion. City are champions just as most people expected they would be, even with the 248 days of chasing.

In large part, though, the reason why Manchester City are better than even their best competition is that their margins are not nearly as thin. And that fragility was Arsenal's shortcoming.

Any imperfect result in the stretch run can and will be attributed to a lack of mental fortitude, as was the case with Arsenal's disappointing 3-3 April-time draw with Southampton. Whereas by contrast, their October-time draw against Southampton, with their 65th minute equaliser, will not be. The lack of mental fortitude is a predetermined conclusion irrespective of circumstance, and something mostly looked for critically in the home stretch. After all, are those peddling the "bottle" narrative using the October game as corroborating evidence?

Perhaps there is more truth to such a narrative than I, an admittedly biased observer, am willing to concede. But in Arsenal's title run-in, I did not see a team that quit or panicked. I saw a team that struggled with line-ups that looked like they had not played together before....because they hadn't. To lose three key defenders at the same time was terminal.

Ah well. Next time.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.